Latest news with #political stability
Arab News
2 days ago
- Politics
- Arab News
Why Lebanon's fragile state hinges on Hezbollah's next move
BEIRUT: As pressure intensifies on Lebanon's new government to resolve the question of Hezbollah's arms, it confronts a fundamental challenge: Can the Iran-backed group relinquish its military wing and become a purely political party? And if it does, will Lebanon's state institutions and political culture prove capable of supporting such a transition? Earlier this month, Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkiye and special envoy for Syria, telegraphed Washington's growing impatience with the status quo in Lebanon in remarks to journalists following his visit to Beirut. He described Hezbollah's disarmament as an essential condition for the renewal of international financial aid and long-term political stability in Lebanon. As part of a proposal presented to Lebanese officials, the US offered support for Lebanon's economic reform efforts in exchange for Hezbollah's complete disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, and the release of Lebanese detainees held by Israel. 'If Lebanon doesn't hurry up and get in line, everyone around them will,' Barrack said. He acknowledged what he described as a 'spectacular' response from Beirut in a short time, but criticized the Lebanese political system's ingrained culture of 'delay, detour, and deflect,' saying time was running out for the country to adapt to a fast-changing regional order. But disarming Hezbollah is far from straightforward. Despite suffering significant losses last year during its war with Israel, including the death of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and the destruction of much of its military infrastructure, Hezbollah has shown no willingness to give up its arms. The group's new leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, reiterated that stance in a video address on July 19. 'We will not surrender or give up to Israel; Israel will not take our weapons away from us,' he said. According to him, any disarmament would be discussed only as part of a national defense strategy determined internally by Lebanon, and only after a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. That position is tied to continued Israeli airstrikes, including recent attacks in the south that killed two individuals on July 20, as per local media reports. Hezbollah cites these violations, along with Israel's continued occupation of five positions seized after the November 2024 ceasefire, as justification for retaining its arms. Although the group claims to have handed over 190 of its 265 southern military positions to the Lebanese army, it continues to maintain a significant arsenal in the region and in other strongholds. Hezbollah emerged as Lebanon's most powerful military force and dominant political actor in the post-civil war era, representing a significant portion of the Shiite population alongside the Amal party. Together, the two groups hold all the 27 Shiite seats in the 128-member parliament. Analysts say that Hezbollah's ideological foundation has long rested on armed resistance, so shifting toward civilian politics would require not only strategic recalculation but also a new political message capable of sustaining its popular base. 'For decades, the party has emphasized armed resistance against Israel as central to its appeal,' said David Wood, senior analyst on Lebanon at the International Crisis Group (ICG). 'If Hezbollah wants to transition into a normal political party, it will need to craft another electoral narrative based around how it can improve the socio-economic fortunes of its constituents.' Such a transformation is not without precedent. Other armed movements in the region, such as the Palestinian Fatah in earlier decades, have evolved into political organizations. However, the Lebanese context is unique in many ways. Years of economic collapse, institutional paralysis and political gridlock have left the state too weak to assert its authority. The November 2024 ceasefire, brokered by the US and France, was intended to revive the terms of UN Resolution 1701, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, a halt to Hezbollah's military operations near the southern border, and full control of arms by the Lebanese state. But little progress has been made. Bilal Saab, associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, expressed doubt over Hezbollah's ability to function effectively as a conventional political party. He pointed to signs of waning support in southern Lebanon and other Hezbollah strongholds. The group's military losses, the destruction of southern villages, and the economic suffering in Hezbollah-controlled areas are undermining its grassroots support, Saab told Arab News. 'It is therefore unclear whether an unarmed Hezbollah could compete effectively in free elections, within Lebanon's complex political system.' He said the obstacles ahead of the government are political willingness and 'exaggerated' fears of sectarian violence. The new leaders, he said, 'must recognize that the chances of sectarian tensions are higher with the status quo unchanged.' According to Saab, lack of serious action to address the issue of Hezbollah's arms would prompt Israel to continue its attacks and cause more damage and human casualties. 'If that happens, war-weary and economically dispossessed Lebanese could blame Hezbollah for causing even more death and destruction. This would in turn increase the risk of sectarian violence and people taking up arms against Hezbollah and its supporters,' he said. For Lebanon's new leadership under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, the challenge is to preserve national stability while dealing with an increasingly polarized domestic landscape and pressure from powerful external actors. Though both leaders have reiterated their commitment to imposing a state monopoly on arms, they have insisted that any progress depends on Israel's complete withdrawal from Lebanese territory and an end to violations of Lebanese sovereignty. While Barrack's proposal received praise for its ambition, its feasibility depends on wider geopolitical considerations. Paul Salem, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that Iran, Hezbollah's principal backer, will have the final say. 'The key decision of disarming Hezbollah would have to be made in Iran, the group's main backer, not in Lebanon,' he told Arab News. 'For the time being, it is clear that Tehran is encouraging Hezbollah to drag its feet and not to hand over all its arms and I think that will remain the case.' Salem emphasized the need for a coordinated domestic and international effort to encourage Hezbollah's transition into a political entity. This, he said, would require guarantees from the US, a defined role for the LAF, and political assurances from the Arab Gulf states. 'Hezbollah, at a minimum, would need assurances about Israel's withdrawal and protection of its operatives in Lebanon, which would have to come from the US, as well reassurances from Gulf countries of aid for reconstruction of the war-ravaged areas,' Salem said. 'They would want some of that money to come through their auspices so they could benefit politically.' The World Bank has estimated the cost of Lebanon's reconstruction at $11 billion. US and Gulf officials have indicated that significant portions of that aid will only be unlocked if Hezbollah agrees to disarm. The issue of integrating Hezbollah supporters into Lebanon's broader political and economic fabric is also paramount. Wood emphasized that the process of disarming Hezbollah should come with assurances that the Shiite community would remain part of the nation-building process in a country long paralyzed by factional politics. 'Lebanon's leaders must think very carefully about how to fully integrate Hezbollah's supporters into the country's future, or else they risk creating dangerous fissures in Lebanese society,' the ICG's Wood said. Despite mounting pressure, few expect a quick resolution. Reports suggest Hezbollah is conducting a strategic review of its military posture, exploring possible scenarios but delaying concrete action. 'Hezbollah is taking a 'wait and see' approach for now,' Wood said. 'Perhaps it wants to know if regional circumstances might improve for it before seriously entertaining the idea of surrendering its military wing.' Meanwhile, the Lebanese army has consolidated control over Rafik Hariri International Airport and large parts of the south, improving state authority and border security. A successful disarmament, officials argue, would boost the credibility of Lebanon's institutions and the case for the state's monopoly on force. The Middle East Institute's Salem cautioned that Hezbollah is unlikely to fully relinquish its arms without assurances that go beyond Lebanese borders. If anything, he said, the disarmament would reduce sectarian tensions 'with the Sunnis, Christians, Druze and other communities that have been afraid of Hezbollah's arms.' The potential rewards for Lebanon are clearly substantial. Hezbollah's disarmament would enable Lebanon to form new alliances with regional and global partners. The disarmament process could also unlock vital economic assistance, helping the country recover from years of political paralysis, financial crisis and social unrest. However, Lebanon's leadership remains caught between the demands of the international community and the compulsions of domestic sectarian politics. For now, a delicate balance holds. But as pressure builds, time may be running out for Lebanon's politicians to chart the country's future — before others do it for them.
Malay Mail
2 days ago
- Politics
- Malay Mail
Hajiji: GRS to stay with Pakatan for state polls, Sabah needs stability over solo ambitions
KOTA KINABALU, July 21 — Despite calls for the ruling Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) to contest on its own, Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor said that the coalition with remain in a formal pact with its national coalition partners Pakatan Harapan (PH) going into the election, with a broader strategy in mind. The Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah president said that political stability — not just electoral victory — is the priority for the state, but also stressed that GRS would be contesting most of the 73 state constituency seats. 'We will continue our cooperation in the current government — both the state government, GRS, and Pakatan Harapan,' he said when speaking to reporters here. 'We also want to listen to local aspirations. So we will make the best decision for Sabah because for us, political stability is very important. It's not just about winning the election. After the election, we must ensure stability. Only then can we plan and develop our state,' He said that he has had several discussions with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as chairman of PH and that they were reaching a decision on the seat negotiations soon. Hajiji, who is GRS chairman, has been in favour of staying with PH during the election but grassroot calls for the local coalition to contest on its own has been getting stronger, particularly after the Parti Bersatu Sabah and Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku's joint convention two weekends ago. Chants of 'solo' reverberated during the convention, reflecting the desire from the ground for local parties to form the state government without relying on national parties. The calls come from along-standingg perception of Sabah being taken advantage of and beholden to the federal government or national parties. Another issue is that the federal government also comprises Umno, GRS's former state partners who had attempted a coup on Hajiji after what it claims was many broken promises and agreements and leading to a fallout between the two. A three day PGRS convention this weekend is expected to serve as a platform to prepare the party machinery for a possible snap state election. Earlier today, Hajiji presented scholarships to the best performing students in the state, noting that they have more than doubled the amount since it took over the government in 2020. 'From only RM50 million in 2020, the BKNS allocation has continued to increase year by year over the past five years, reaching RM136 million in 2025. 'This marks an increase of RM86 million from 2019, reflecting the State Government's commitment to supporting the education of Sabah's children,' he said.
Free Malaysia Today
4 days ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Anwar should stay on as PM for political stability, says Rafizi
Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli said a stable government is needed to manage the current economic challenges and complete the current term. PETALING JAYA : Anwar Ibrahim should remain as prime minister until the end of his term to ensure political stability amid economic uncertainty, says former economy minister Rafizi Ramli. Rafizi, who is Pandan MP, said any change in government now could disrupt efforts to manage growing economic challenges, including slowing growth projections across the Asean region. 'We can't have a change of government right now as we're facing serious economic challenges,' he said in the latest episode of the Yang Berhenti Menteri podcast yesterday. He cited forecasts indicating that countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines could see growth drop by 2% to 3%. If Malaysia's growth falls to 3% or lower, it could pose a serious risk to the country over the next one to two years, he said. He said a stable government is needed to manage the situation and complete the current term. Perikatan Nasional has planned a 'Turun Anwar' mass rally for July 26 to push for Anwar's resignation. Organisers claim they expect up to 300,000 participants, although a similar protest in Shah Alam earlier this month drew just over 300. Rafizi also said he has no intention of criticising or embarrassing Anwar in the Dewan Rakyat when it reconvenes on Monday. This comes after Anwar said he had no plans to take disciplinary action against PKR MPs who expressed differing views on judicial appointments. Last week, 19 PKR divisions in Johor called for Rafizi and eight other MPs to be suspended after they demanded a royal commission of inquiry (RCI) and a parliamentary hearing into delays in appointing top judicial posts. The nine MPs claimed the matter amounted to a constitutional crisis, an allegation which the Attorney-General's Chambers denied. The AGC also dismissed the call for an RCI, stating that the appointment process was proceeding at the time in accordance with the Federal Constitution. Since then, Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh has been appointed chief justice, replacing Tengku Maimun Tuan Mat, who retired earlier this month. The Yang di-Pertuan Agong also consented to the appointments of Abu Bakar Jais as Court of Appeal president and Azizah Nawawi as chief judge of Sabah and Sarawak. All three will be sworn in and receive their letters of appointment at Istana Negara on July 28.
